A non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modelling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind index is bounded from both above and below and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard in the context of modelling the wind power production index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically generated assuming a constant level of installed capacity. Also, based on 1 year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases. To further demonstrate the benefits of our proposed model, we address the pricing of European options written on wind power futures, which can be achieved through Fourier techniques.     

On feedback and stable price adjustment mechanisms

Given an excess demand function of an economy, say Z(p)$Z(p)$, a stable price adjustment mechanism (SPAM) guarantees convergence of solution path p(t,_p0)$p(t,p_0)$ to an equilibrium _peq$p_{\mathit{eq}}$ solution of Z(p)=0$Z(p)=0$. Besides, all equilibrium points of Z(p)$Z(p)$ are asymptotically stable. Some SPAMs have been proposed, including Newton and transpose Jacobian methods. Despite this powerful stability property of SPAMs, their acceptation in the economics community has been limited by a lack of interpretation. This paper focuses on this issue. Specifically, feedback control theory is used to link SPAMs and price dynamics models with control inputs, which match the economically intuitive Walrasian Hypothesis (i.e., prices change with excess demand sign). Under mild conditions, it is shown the existence of a feedback function that transforms the price dynamics into a desired SPAM. Hence, a SPAM is interpreted as a fundamental (e.g., Walrasian) price dynamics under the action of a feedback function aimed to stabilize the equilibrium set of the excess demand function.     

Contract type and decision right of sales promotion in supply chain management with a capital constrained retailer

From the practices of Chinese consumer electronics market, we find there are two key issues in supply chain management: The first issue is the contract type of either wholesale price contracts or consignment contracts with revenue sharing, and the second issue is the decision right of sales promotion (such as advertising, on-site shopping assistance, rebates, and post-sales service) owned by either manufacturers or retailers. We model a supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer who has limited capital and faces deterministic demand depending on retail price and sales promotion. The two issues interact with each other. We show that only the combination (called as chain business mode) of a consignment contract with the manufacturer’s right of sales promotion or a wholesale price contract with the retailer’s right of sales promotion is better for both members. Moreover, the latter chain business mode is realized only when the retailer has more power in the chain and has enough capital, otherwise the former one is realized. But which one is preferred by customers? We find that the former is preferred by customers who mainly enjoy low price, while the latter is preferred by those who enjoy high sales promotion level.     

Real-World Forward Rate Dynamics With Affine Realizations

We investigate the existence of affine realizations for Lévy driven interest rate term structure models under the real-world probability measure, which so far has only been studied under an assumed risk-neutral probability measure. For models driven by Wiener processes, all results obtained under the risk-neutral approach concerning the existence of affine realizations are transferred to the general case. A similar result holds true for models driven by compound Poisson processes with finite jump size distributions. However, in the presence of jumps with infinite activity we obtain severe restrictions on the structure of the market price of risk; typically, it must even be constant.     

Sequential Discrete p-Facility Models for Competitive Location Planning

Two new models for duopolistic competitive discrete location planning with sequential acting and variable delivered prices are introduced. If locations and prices are assumed to be set once and for all by the players, the resulting bilevel program is nonlinear. Under the assumption that further price adjustments are possible, i.e., that a Nash equilibrium in prices is reached, the model can be simplified to a linear discrete bilevel formulation. It is shown that in either situation players should not share any locations or markets if they strive for profit-maximization.For the situation with price adjustments, a heuristic solution procedure is suggested. In addition, the bilevel models are shown to serve as a basis from which different well-known location models – as, for example, the p-median problem, the preemptive location problem and the maximum covering problem – can be derived as special cases.     

消费者连续统集合下一种投入产出经济的均衡和一般均衡价格

本给出了一个经济模型把跨期间的一般均衡理论和neo-Ricardian的生产价格理论联系起来，并改进了Roce-Anne Oana模型[1][2]。即把消费有限改变消费连续统，并在Rose-Anne Dana模型的基础上，加了条件C.4和C.7，得出了两个重要的结果：（1）在标准条件下，此模型有一均衡使得每一个生产的每期最大利润是相等的；（2）如考虑生产价格是稳定价格；且等于最大利润；则在适当的条件下，这样的价格系统是存在且唯一的，而所定义的均衡的非折扣的价格序列收敛于生产价格。因此均衡价格依赖于技术和消费特征，但在取极限时，有关价格仅依赖于技术。     

Embedding optimisation algorithms with Mosel

Algebraic modelling languages allow models to be implemented in such a way that they can easily be understood and modified. They are therefore a working environment commonly used by practitioners in Operations Research. Having once developed models, they need to be integrated inside the company information system. This step often involves embedding a model into a programming language environment: many existing algebraic modelling languages make possible to run parameterised models and subsequently retrieve their results, but without any facility for interacting with the model during the model generation or solution process.In this paper we show how to use the Mosel environment to implement complex algorithms directly in the modelling language.The Office cleaning problem is solved by a branch-and-cut algorithm, implemented entirely in the modelling language (including the definition of the callback function for the solver). Secondly, a cutting stock problem is solved by column generation, also implemented in the modelling language.AMS classification: 90Cxx, 65K05, 68N15     

A unified framework for pull control mechanisms in multi‐stage manufacturing systems

This paper presents a unified framework for pull production control mechanisms in multistage manufacturing systems. A pull production control mechanism in a multistage manufacturing system is a mechanism that coordinates the release of parts into each stage of the system with the arrival of customer demands for final products. Four basic pull production control mechanisms are presented: Base Stock, Kanban, Generalized Kanban, and Extended Kanban. It is argued that on top of any of these basic coordination mechanisms, a local mechanism to control the workinprocess in each stage may be superimposed. Several cases of basic stage coordination mechanisms with stage workinprocess control are presented, and several production control systems that have appeared in the literature are shown to be equivalent to some of these cases.